“The activation of the U.S. is particularly important for Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and, more broadly, for the South Caucasus,” says Olesya Vartanyan, an analyst on South Caucasus affairs, assessing Washington’s initiative to improve relations between Baku and Yerevan.
The U.S. administration has already offered to assist Baku and Yerevan in negotiations concerning transportation issues. Around three weeks ago, U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack announced that Washington had proposed a 100-year lease of the Zangezur Corridor to Armenia and Azerbaijan. He also indicated that the U.S. is willing to take responsibility for managing the corridor if it helps break the deadlock in negotiations between the two countries.
“This renewed engagement by the U.S. is in fact a very positive development,” Vartanyan says. “It not only encourages Azerbaijan — which currently holds most of the key leverage to sign or advance a peace deal — but also raises hopes that the parties could reach an agreement on a crucial issue like transportation links.”
“This would be a significant step forward for the entire region. It would not only strengthen stability and reduce the risk of new wars and escalations, but also significantly improve the region’s transit potential. Overall, this is very good news for the South Caucasus,” Vartanyan adds.
According to the expert, it is crucial at this stage for negotiations to focus on a specific component — transportation connectivity — or, alternatively, to first finalize a peace agreement and return to such large-scale projects later.
Depending on what Washington chooses to emphasize, it will also become clear how actively the U.S. intends to engage and what level of diplomatic effort it is willing to invest.
On August 4, Alex Raufoglu, an Azerbaijani journalist based in Washington, wrote that, according to several sources, U.S. President Trump is expected to host the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House later this week. This information has not yet been officially confirmed by either side.
